The NBA is almost back. We've already seen some preseason action, and there simply isn't enough time to cover everything that happened in the offseason for every team, as I've done for the MLB and NFL. Basketball is my favorite sport, and despite all of the complaints (some warranted and others not so much), the NBA is my favorite league. We haven't seen the same team win the Championship in nine seasons, and we've had eight straight years with a different winner. Some of the awards haven't been quite as diverse, but I'm looking at options for this season and where we could make some money.
The past two seasons have seen Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the MVP award. The last person to win three straight seasons was Larry Bird. That was from 1983-1986. So, consider this your advice to cross him off your list. Victor Wembanyama is young, on a great team, and looked good until the Finals last year. It could very well be his year. However, at +210, the number is far too low. I have a few other options worth considering. Nikola Jokic is a finalist every season, and he has averaged a triple-double the past two years. Somehow he hasn't won the MVP in either of those seasons. At +500, it might be worth it to take a shot on him getting the award that he has missed out on the past two years.
Some of the longer shots that I like are Anthony Edwards at +1800 and Cade Cunningham at +2200. Perhaps I just like Edwards. He is the best player on a good team and is consistently leading them to the playoffs. He also doesn't take games off and keeps improving each season. If the Timberwolves can be in the top three in the West, Edwards and his personality might be enough to give him the award. Cunningham is the best player on the Pistons and does literally everything for them. He led them to the top spot in the East last year. While I don't think that will happen again, I'm thinking that Cunningham taking another step forward might finally get the attention he deserves.
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Cooper Flagg will take a step forward, but the Mavs would need to finish in the top four of the West for him to win it. There are worse flyers to take than +20000 on Flagg. Jalen Brunson at +5000 is another that is interesting. After winning the championship last year, he could focus on getting an individual award. The media will likely still look at the Knicks as being a complete team, and I think the Knicks are going to take a step back this season, so I don't like it, but it is conceivable, and there are worse numbers.
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The NBA Draft was about as chalky as you could expect. AJ Dybantsa went first, then Darryn Peterson, Cam Boozer, and finally Caleb Wilson. People talk about the 2003 Draft, but this could be one that is very close. I don't expect Dybantsa to have a big enough role, and I think the Wizards will ease him into the spotlight. Boozer is not going to turn around Memphis, and therefore won't win. Peterson on the Jazz could be a really good addition, and he will likely be the go-to scorer. Caleb Wilson looks like he will have a prominent role and the green light. I just don't know that he is going to be a good enough shooter to win this award.
So, who should we take? Darius Acuff Jr. will put up some monster numbers, but the Kings won't be able to hide his defensive flaws, and eventually that narrative will hurt him. Keaton Wagler might be the best option to take at +3500. Wagler is on a Clippers team that is searching, desperately, for someone to take over. I like him as a long shot and if I have to pick a favorite, I'll choose Peterson at +340.
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I won't go through every player, but I like DeMar DeRozan at +1800. DeRozan still has a lot left in the tank, and I love that he is coming off the bench for Denver. He is an iso player who excels in the midrange. I can imagine many stretches where he comes in while Jokic and Jamal Murray are off the floor and DeRozan comes in to take over. I could see him getting some game-winners as well.
There are, of course, a lot more awards you can choose from. I like to wait on Most Improved, even if I get a bit worse number, because this often goes to players who are good already, but improved from good to great. Defensive Player of the Year isn't worth betting on anyone, including Victor Wembanyama.
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